Friday, May 18, 2007

Overall NFL ranking 1-32

1 New Orleans 17 KC
2 New England 18 Tennessee
3 Denver 19 Jacksonville
4 Indianapolis 20 St. Louis
5 Chicago 21 Arizona
6 Baltimore 22 Atlanta
7 San Diego 23 Cleveland
8 Philadelphia 24 Pittsburgh
9 San Fransisco 25 Minnesota
10 Houston 26 Oakland
11 Dallas 27 Tampa Bay
12 Seattle 28Washington
13 NY Jets 29 Green Bay
14 Cincinatti 30 Detroit
15 Carolina 31 Buffalo
16 NY Giants 32 Miami

Preseason AFC Rankings

AFC Champ: New England (1)
Division Champs:
East: New England
North: Batimore
South: Indy
West: Denver
Wild Cards:
San Diego
Houston (2)
The Rest, In Order:
New York
Cincinatti
KC
Tennessee
Jax
Cleveland (3)
Pittsburgh
Oakland
Buffalo
Miami

1- I have nothing to add to the national praising of New England, except this: they will lose the Super Bowl to New Orleans. The Saints have a better secondary, receiving corps, backield, and superior pass rush from the defensive line (a crucial factor, because the Siants' pass rush functions like a blitz on every play without having to leave single coverage in the secondary). The tow teams are roughly equal at quarterback, and the only area in which the Pats are superior is linebacker.

2- Yes, Houston. I don't honestly know if this will happen. I'm not enamored with MattScaub, nor am I totally soured on David Carr, but this D is damn good. Houston and Denver will both survive on their D, which means they will be more resistent to injuries to their skill players, which is a sure sign of success. The real reason I chose houston is two-fold: their are at least six teams in contention for this spot, each with excellence in some areas and flaws in others. It's the way of the NFL. Since handicpping these teams is a fool's errand anyway, I feel that by choosing Houston of the six, I am more likely to be right about the NFl's biggest surprise than anyone else. Secondly, while the team might not have existed when I lived there, I am still a sucker for the teams from my hometown.

3- I have handicapped Cleveland and Oakland because I don't know how long they'll wait until they put out their rookie QBs. I am hoping they'll wait for the player's sake, but Cleveland is closer to being able to put out Quinn than Oakland is for Russell because of their O-line. Oakland has all of the skill players, but is a draft away on the line.

4- Miami feels like they're throwing the season. Maybe that's why the Trent Green deal hasn't happened. They chose an injured WR in the first round, a pick that I like by the way, they have been purging contracts and are looking to rent a qb. This team is thinking about 08.

Preseason NFC Rankings

NFC Champ: Saints (1)
Division Winners:
South: Saints
North: Bears
East: Eagles
West: 49ers (2)
Wildcards:
Cowboys
Seahawks
The Rest, in order:
Panthers
Giants
Rams (3)
Cardinals
Falcons
Vikings
Buccaneers
Redskins
Packers
Lions

1-The Saints had the best offense in the NFL last year, and have only added weapons. They lost no one of significacne from last year (sorry, Joe, you were hurt) but added Eric Johnson and Robert Meachem. Johnson will be effective because of Brees' affection for TEs, while Meachem gretly improves the depth at WR. The Saints may eventually regret passing on Posluzny, especially since Keyshawn became available, and they still need help at OLB. In any case, the defense has made great strides in the secondary and lost no one. They will still have som succetiblity to the run, but the return of Roman Harper will help contain long runs, and the Saints were better up the middle with Hollis Thomas at DT last year. If the offense is working at its best, this team will not see many run plays anyway. The secondary went from one of the worst in the league to possibly the best in the conference. Inthe division, expect that no team will be able to keep up with the Saints' scoring.

2-Expect the Niners to look good this year. Alex Smith, Frank Gore, and Nate Clements give this team a strong core, and Seattle is getting older. If the secondary looks like it did last year in Seattle, this will be the year they are finally dethroned.

3- This is where it gets confusing. No one in the NFC is without their flaws, but these three teams have a lot of questions. The Rams have all of the talent, but seemed to give up on themselves last year, I never trust the Cardinals, no matter how good they look on paper, the Falcons could lose Michael Vick to suspension, and if they do that could be better or worse. I may be the last Joey Galloway fan there is. I would rather have him than Michael Vick, although that team is not really set up for him. The Buccaneers could be very good or very bad depending on how much Jeff Garcia has in the tank and whether Gaines Adams can contribute right away. I would expect that what will hold all of these teams back is the talent in their divisions. The Tampa defense will really be troubled by New Orleans and Carolina, the Falcons can't seem to figure out New Orleans, and Zona and St. Louis are stuck with SF and Seattle.

Thursday, May 3, 2007

Saints Draft

For those of you keeping score at home, now that the Saints have added free agent rookies, they have signings from:

Wingate, Eastern Washington, Akron, Towson, Clark-Atlanta, Northwest Mississippi Community College, Kent State, and U of Alberta. As in Canada. Huh.

Suddenly my degree from Southeastern Louisiana doesn't seem so obscure.

NBA Racism?

A Professor at Penn and a Grad Student at Cornell have released a study showing that White NBA refs call fouls at a higher rate on black players than whites, and vice versa. The white refs have ahigher rate of correlation. They conclude that if talent were the same, a team could pick up a few games a season by tailoring its team's racial composition to the referees. Commissioner David Stern did his own study, finding no problem, but the New York Times showed both studies to a group of academics, who unanimously prefferred the Penn study.

I have not read the study, but by the end of the day I will.

NBA players who have also not read the study are calling it ridiculous, using anecdotal evidence in support of a race-free NBA and resorting to cliches like "statistics can say anything you want them to". This is asinine. The study in all likelihood uses a technique called statistical regression, which determines correlation by removing outside factors, and was the primary basis for the book Freakonomics.

No one is saying that race is acting on a conscious level.

However, David Stern owes every fan this: do the study again, and do it right. You have the information and the money, and some statistics are only available to you. (Who gets disciplined, who made which call). Sort this out, David. Do it now.


While you're at it, here are a few ideas:
Get all of the facts. Take about ten years of games, know who called which foul, and then take it a step further. Isolate for all the factors. I suggest each player have the following categories: race, position, nationality, years in the league, and all-star berths. The last one would be a boolean variable (yes/no) and once a player has been an all-star, then they get yes for the rest of their carreers. Next, eliminate the fouls that don't count. Intentional fouls at the end of the game can have no racial motivation, and neither can fouls after which a player self-identifies. Finally, know the refs' age, race, sex, experience, and marital status. Now on each foul there is a matrix working three ways: The player, the refs, and his or her peers.

Now you can use regression software available on every campus in America. You can find the individual tendencies of every ref, and find out overall trends too. Is it race? how about nationality? Are white refs even friendlier to white americans? What about when you exept centers, who traditionally get more fouls? Now try it for starters, since they're less likely to hack-a-shaq. Do superstars get star treatment, and is that exacerbated by years in the league?

Until that report comes out, the NBA is turning a blind eye, and are complicit in whatever bias the refs have.

Tuesday, May 1, 2007

Final Post of the Night

The odds of Minnesota-Chicago 1-2 are about 1 in 1000 (.053 x .019=.001007)

Rephrasing: GS lost, and they will not have a better chance than tonight. Dallas is feeling good, but they head back west on friday.

If the Lakers were playing the Clippers, would they still get a night off to travel when all seven games are in the same arena?

good night.

Golden State

1 point with 96 seconds left. Remember what I said. Also, Blogging is wonderful, because you don't have to remember. I will point it out ad nauseum.

Late Nite

Sorry about the grammar in the last post, late night. BTW-the post times are never right on this blog.

Nine points with three minutes to go: if the Warriors lose tonight, they lose the series.

Golden State, Curry, the draft

Indy and Golden Stae's midseason deal is the most lopsided trade in recent memory not involving Isaiah Thomas.

Here's a Kookie thought:

What If the ping-pong balls come up with Minnesota then Chicago? The Wolves could take Durant, trade KG for Gordon and #2, which the Bulls might do because it would give them a near-guaranteed title, and they already have Big Ben. This would also give Minnesota about a $12 million exception. Who knows who they could get. Rashard Lewis maybe? Darco Milicic?

Their opening day lineup would then be: Randy Foye, Ricky Davis, Kevin Durant, Lewis/Milicic/other, Greg Oden, and Ben Gordon off of the bench.

Throw in one more good lottery pick in '08 while they figure some things out and that is an amazing team.

Sunday, April 29, 2007

Tampa Bay

#3 best draft in the NFC South. Gaines Adams, DE, Clem; Arron Sears, OG, Tenn; Sabby Piscitelli, S, Ore St; Quincy Black, OLB, New Mexico; Tanard Jackson, Cb, 'Cuse

Talk about reloading the defense. The Other City By The Bay added two dbs, a lb, and the first defensive player drafted. Tampa and Atlanta both showed great response to the Car and NO wr corps. The O in Tampa needs some work, as usual, but the D might be scary again.

Carolina, dead last. Jon Beason, OLB, Mia; Jarrett, WR, USC; Ryan Kalil, C, USC; Charles Johnson, DE, UGA; Ryne Robinson, WR, Mia (OH)

Beason Should mesh well with Peppers in the front 7, and Jarrett is a great 3rd receiver. The Panthers have the third best receiver corp in the league, but even wondering about Keyshawn's future, Robinson is a reach. The main knock: where is the secondary?

Kudos to Oakland

Oakland, so far, had had the best draft of the year, and the best they've had since many years ago.

This is what Oakland has done so far:

They've added:
Jamarcus Russell (#1 QB)
Josh McCown
Dominic Rhodes
Michael Bush (Maybe the biggest steal of the draft)
Mike Williams
Zach Miller (#2 TE in the draft)
Mario Henderson
Johnnie Lee Higgins
John Bowie

and they already had a decent defense.

They also got rid of Randy Moss, saving the money necessary to possibly add Faneca from Pittsburgh. If they do that, I will be incredibly impressed. Either way, they have solved their problems at the skill positions, they are only some line players away from the playoffs in a year or two.

Saints on the clock: Troy Smith, please!

Trade Details

These are the two draft trades the Saints made so far:

4th round (123) and 5th (163) for Houston's 4th (107): Antonio Pittman
2nd (58) for Detroit's 3rd (66): Usama Young and 5th (145)

Draft Wrapup: NFC South

The NFC South had a 'nuts and bolts' type of draft, with only two offensive skill players drafted in the first two rounds.

1) Atlanta: Great picks. Jamal Anderson improves the D-line considerably, and even though they missed out on LaRon Landry, the beast of a safety out of LSU, they snagged Chris Houston whom the Saints must have really wanted. Houston is a first round talent, great value pick. The main reason I ranked them #1, though, is Justin Blalock. He's a monster who will stabilize the O-line for years.

2) New Orleans: Robert Meachem is a great pick, and there's a fabulous picture in the Times-Pic of Meachem burning Landry for a TD. Usama Young is a workout freak who brings youth to the secondary, and Alleman is a great potential player that ESPN thinks will be a quality starter in a couple of years, and he played three positions in college, making him an ideal backup. While the addition of Pittman has me scrtching my head with Troy Smith still out there, these are key backups the Saints have added. While drafting for the bench isn't very impressive, the Saints have managed to save a ton of money with this draft, which helps to finance the off-season, and if Pittman and Young work out, maybe they can deal Deuce or McKenzie next year to save money. I love Deuce, but he isn't getting any younger.

TB and Carolina later today

Saturday, April 28, 2007

Saints, NFC South

Robert Meachem, WR Tenn...The Saints are preserving the Offense.

Note #2: The Falcons have taken Aim at the Saints. LaRon Landry and Chris Houston are obviously meant to take away the Saints passing attack. That's how it goes when you're the champ.

2nd Round

C'mon Marcus McAukey...Fall a little more...

Friday, April 27, 2007

Mock Draft Mania!!! Prices so low we're practically giving them away!!!

It's time for the NFL draft again, easter to the Super Bowl's christmas, and the amount of mock drafts is truly shocking. I don't know if not having tv for three years left me out of the loop, or if the Saints drafting so high last year just meant that I missed them, or if this year is some kind of breakthrough, but, well, damn.

Let this be my chance to sya "me too!" and compile some of my favorite mock drafts info about the Saints.

The Saints draft 27th in round 1, and have one second and one third round pick.

They also have three fouth round picks, one of which is due to Indy in the Jason David deal.

The Starting lineup (pending the draft and training camp is as follows, with asterisks representing new acquisitions.

Defense:
CB: Jason David* (indy)
Mike Mckenzie
S: Kevin Kaesviharn* (cin)
Roman Harper (return from injury)
LB: Scott Fujita
Brian Simmons* (cin)
Scott Shanle
DE: Charles Grant
Will Smith
DT: Brian Young
Hollis Thomas

Offense:
QB: Drew Brees
FB: Mike Karney
RB: Deuce McAliister
Reggie Bush
WR: Marques Colston
Devery Henderson
Terrance Copper
David Patten* (ne)
TE: Eric Johnson* (sf)
Billy Miller
OL: Jahri Evans
Jeff Faine
Three Others

K: Olindo Mare* (mia)

Give me a break, I did that from memory.

The Saints told the Times-Pic that they needed to fill five positions (CB, LB, DT, WR, TE) in the offseason, and have used free agency to address them all except DT.

Here are some notes from mock drafts, followed by my official mock draft of everything that matters...

1. No one knows anything for sure, except that if Brady Quinn is available in the sixth round, your team should not take him. What on earth did this guy do so badly?
2. Every mock draft on earth has the Saints taking a CB in the first round. As the draft has neared, thouhm, the Saints have been moving down the pole, from getting the second best CB to the fifth. Peter King even said he sees the Saints taking a guy who was caught with 130 ecstasy tablets. Give me a break! Coach P wouldn't draft that guy, it doesn't mesh with his philosophy.
3. ESPN finally put out a mock draft that made me happy. I really like Posluszny from Penn State, but all of the mocks have him gone by #27. If hes there, then he'd look really good opposite Fujita. If a DT is available, then the Saints would be foolish not to grab him.

Round 1:
If available (and likely to be) in order:

1) Paul Posluszny, LB, Penn St.
2)Justin Harrell, Tennessee, DT
3) Dwayne Bowe, WR, LSU
4) Aaron Ross, CB, Texas
5) Jon Beason, LB, Miami (Fl)
6) Anthony Spencer, OLB, Purdue
7)Robert Meachem, WR, Tenn
8)Jon Beason, LB, Miami (Fl)
9)Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Ohio State
10)Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC

I Like this Davis kid out of FSU in the second round, if available. I think his size ceases to be an issue when paired with Colston, who will require the bigger defender. In the third, I am intrigued by Troy Smith, the much-maligned Heisman Trophy-wwinning QB from Ohio State. He's got an arm, he's mobile, he makes good decisions, and I think he might be the second best QB prospect in the draft. I'm not worried about his size, because this team is built for a short QB in Drew Brees, and the Saints desperately need a backup QB, because Jamie Martin is not it.

Zack's so cheap...

So I've decided to eliminate my apple blog for three reasons:
1: I don't want to spend $100
2: I can never find it
3: It never loads correctly

For those of you who don't know, this blog will cover book reviews, sports, recipes, and the ongoing struggle toward adulthood as viewed through a unique voice of my generation: me.

That's it for now.